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Current Global Situation and Emerging
Risks for Foot-and-Mouth Disease
GF-TADs Webinar, 20 April 2026
SUMMARY
The
current global situation of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) reflects an
increasingly complex and dynamic landscape, driven by the emergence and spread
of new viral serotypes that challenge existing control strategies. While
serotype O continues to dominate globally and serotype C has not been detected
since 2004, recent years have seen significant incursions of SAT1 and SAT2 into
previously unaffected regions, including the Middle East, Europe, and parts of
Asia. The spread of the SA2018 lineage of serotype O from Pool 2 into Pool 3
countries has further complicated the epidemiological picture, contributing to
a substantial proportion of cases in countries such as India and triggering
outbreaks across multiple regions. At the same time, repeated introductions of
SAT1 and SAT2 viruses from East Africa into the Middle East suggest critical
gaps in quarantine systems and animal movement controls. Of particular concern
is the emergence of SAT1 topotype 3, which may be associated with vaccine
escape or failures in biocontainment, and has already caused widespread
outbreaks across Europe, the Middle East, and more recently China.
These
evolving dynamics have also led to significant consequences for disease status
in several regions. In Southern Africa, multiple countries have lost their
FMD-free status due to outbreaks involving SAT1, SAT2, and SAT3 serotypes. The
increasing detection of SAT1 topotype 3 in this region, including circulation
of wild-type viruses, raises serious concerns about transmission between
wildlife and domestic livestock, as well as the growing risk of transboundary
spread. This situation highlights the fragile nature of disease-free status and
underscores the importance of sustained vigilance, particularly in regions
where wildlife reservoirs play a critical epidemiological role.
Efforts
to control FMD are further complicated by challenges related to vaccine
efficacy and matching. Current vaccine matching studies indicate that existing
vaccines can provide reasonable protection against circulating SAT1 topotype 1
strains. However, the emergence of SAT1 topotype 3 presents a new and
significant challenge due to its distinct genetic and antigenic
characteristics, which may reduce the effectiveness of available vaccines.
These developments emphasize the urgent need for continuous evaluation of
vaccine performance, rapid updating of vaccine strains, and stronger global
coordination to ensure vaccine availability and suitability in affected
regions.
The
introduction of new viral strains into previously unexposed, or naïve,
populations significantly increases the risk of rapid disease spread and
complicates control efforts. In such contexts, enhanced surveillance systems,
timely vaccine matching, and strong cross-border collaboration become essential
components of effective disease management. Without these measures, the
potential for widespread outbreaks and substantial economic losses remains
high.
A
robust FMD risk monitoring and control framework is therefore critical to
support timely and informed decision-making. This framework relies on the
integration of multiple data sources, surveillance systems, and analytical
tools to detect early warning signals and translate them into prioritized
actions. The approach emphasizes strengthening and utilizing existing systems
rather than creating parallel structures, ensuring that risk information is
effectively communicated and operationalized. Semi-quantitative tools, such as
those developed by EUFMD, enable the assessment of various risk pathways by
analyzing factors such as connectivity between countries, disease prevalence,
transmission efficiency, and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. These
tools draw on diverse data sources, including FAO’s EMPRES-i, WOAH’s WAHIS, and
global trade and livestock databases, providing a comprehensive basis for risk
assessment.
Practical
applications of these tools have demonstrated their value in identifying
high-risk scenarios and guiding targeted interventions. For example, risk
assessments have shown that informal livestock movements and shared grazing
practices represent some of the most significant pathways for disease spread.
Rapid assessments conducted for emerging strains, such as SAT1, have revealed
moderate to high levels of impact and uncertainty, with several high-risk
countries subsequently reporting outbreaks shortly after being identified.
Seasonal and cultural factors, including periods of increased animal movement
associated with religious festivals, further amplify these risks and must be
incorporated into risk management strategies.
Translating
risk signals into effective operational measures is a critical step in
controlling FMD. This includes implementing targeted border controls, adapting
surveillance strategies, and aligning vaccination programs with evolving risk
profiles. Countries experiencing incursions of new serotypes must enhance the
sensitivity of case definitions and strengthen frontline veterinary guidance to
ensure early detection. Scaling up mitigation and monitoring efforts is
particularly important in naïve populations, where the introduction of new
strains can lead to rapid and extensive outbreaks. Looking ahead, the
integration of emerging technologies, such as machine learning, offers
promising opportunities to enhance risk prediction and surveillance
capabilities, although these must be complemented by strong field-level
intelligence and expertise.
Early
detection and thorough outbreak investigation remain fundamental to minimizing
the scale and impact of FMD epidemics. Prompt identification of suspected cases
enables rapid implementation of control measures, reducing the likelihood of
secondary spread and limiting production losses. This process depends heavily
on effective passive surveillance systems, which in turn rely on the awareness
and engagement of farmers and veterinarians. Immediate reporting of suspected
cases triggers official investigations and laboratory confirmation, forming the
basis for timely and coordinated responses.
However,
detecting FMD is not always straightforward, particularly in species where
clinical signs may be mild or atypical. While cattle and pigs often exhibit
clear symptoms, small ruminants may show only subtle signs, allowing the
disease to spread undetected. In high-risk areas, even minor signs such as
lameness or small lesions in these species should be treated with suspicion and
investigated promptly. Although detection in wildlife remains challenging,
targeted surveillance and reports from hunters can provide valuable information
in certain contexts.
Comprehensive
outbreak investigations involve detailed epidemiological analysis, including
establishing timelines, assessing lesion development, tracing animal movements,
and conducting laboratory testing. Increasingly, full genome sequencing is
being used to better understand virus evolution and transmission pathways,
thereby informing more effective control strategies and vaccine selection.
Regional coordination and data sharing play a crucial role in enhancing the
overall understanding of outbreaks and improving response effectiveness.
Equally
important is the role of communication and trust in ensuring the success of
surveillance and control efforts. Clear and consistent communication with all
stakeholders, particularly smallholder farmers, encourages timely reporting and
compliance with control measures. Providing transparent information about the
implications of reporting, as well as the consequences of failing to do so,
helps build cooperation and strengthens the overall response system. Capacity
building in veterinary services, including training in epidemiology and
outbreak investigation, remains a key priority to improve detection and
response capabilities, especially in challenging contexts such as small
ruminant populations.
Transparency
and timely sharing of risk information are foundational to effective global FMD
control and the stability of international trade. Open and accurate reporting
reduces uncertainty, supports science-based decision-making, and enables rapid
deployment of control measures such as diagnostics and movement restrictions.
It also fosters trust among trading partners and stakeholders, minimizing
misinformation and speculation. International standards require countries to
report animal disease events promptly and comprehensively, including relevant
epidemiological details and control actions, and to provide follow-up reports
until outbreaks are resolved.
Despite
these obligations, challenges in timely reporting persist in some regions,
often due to complex circumstances such as conflict or limited resources.
Delays in reporting can undermine global surveillance efforts and hinder timely
responses. To address this, international organizations increasingly rely on
supplementary information sources, including media monitoring and intelligence
gathering, to identify potential unreported events and engage with countries
for clarification. Ultimately, transparency must be viewed as a shared
responsibility, requiring commitment from all stakeholders to ensure effective
disease control and rapid mobilization of support when needed.
Looking
forward, the evolving epidemiology of FMD underscores the need for stronger
cross-sector collaboration, adaptive risk management, and the integration of
new technologies. Current evidence suggests that many recent outbreaks are
driven not by environmental factors but by failures in quarantine systems and
uncontrolled animal movements, particularly along established trade routes.
Improving surveillance in naïve populations remains a priority, as diagnostic
challenges such as serological cross-reactivity can complicate early detection,
making clinical vigilance even more important.
Efforts
are also underway to strengthen global coordination through initiatives such as
the Global Partnership Program for Transboundary Animal Diseases, which aims to
enhance country-driven prevention, early warning, and response capacities.
Continued dialogue, knowledge sharing, and innovation will be essential to
address emerging challenges, including vaccine security and genomic
surveillance. In this context, sustained commitment from the global community
is crucial to effectively manage FMD risks and protect both animal health and
livelihoods worldwide.
#FMD
#AnimalHealth
#GlobalOutbreak
#VeterinaryScience
#DiseaseControl
