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Thursday, 21 April 2016

Has Abenomics Lost Its Initial Objective ?

 President, Chiba University of Commerce

    I appreciate Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's devotion to his duty as the leader of Japan. The Abe administration upholds Abenomics which is a vital policy for the Japanese economy and people's life, and it draws worldwide attention. However, I am deeply concerned with the accomplishments of Abenomics until now and its recent directions, since I still support the Abe administration despite these worries.

    The key objective of Abenomics is a departure from 20 year deflation. For this purpose, the Bank of Japan supplied a huge amount of base money to cause inflation, and carried out quantitative and qualitative monetary easing so that consumers and businesses have inflationary mindsets.

    This "first arrow" of Abenomics was successful to boost corporate profits and raising stock prices by devaluing the exchange rate, but falling oil price makes it unlikely to achieve a 2% inflation rate, despite BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's dedicated effort. The quantitative and qualitative monetary easing will not accomplish the core objective.

    Another reason for such a huge amount of base money supply is to expand export through currency depreciation and to stimulate economic growth, but that has neither boosted export nor contributed to economic growth. We cannot dismiss world economic downturn, notably in China, but actually, Japanese big companies that lead national export, have shifted their business bases overseas during the last era of strong yen.

    From this point of view, I suspect that the Japanese government overlooked such structural changes that deterred export growth, even if the yen was devalued. The "second arrow" is flexible fiscal expenditure to support the economy, and the result of which has revealed that it is virtually impossible to keep the promise to the global community to achieve the equilibrium of the primary balance in 2020.

    In view of the above changes, I would like to lay my hopes on the "third arrow" of economic growth strategy. The growth strategy has been announced three times up to now, in 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively.

    The strategy in 2013 launched three action plans, but they were insufficient. The 2014 strategy was highly evaluated internationally, as it actively involved in the reform of basic nature of the Japanese economy, such as capital market reform, agricultural reform, and labor reform. But it takes ten to twenty years for a structural reform like this to work.

    Meanwhile, it is quite difficult to understand the growth strategy approved by the cabinet in June 2015. Frankly, this is empty and the quality of it has become even poorer. Abenomics was heavily dependent on monetary policy, and did not tackle long term issues so much, such as social security and regional development.

    However, people increasingly worry about dire prospects of long term problems like population decrease, aging, and so forth, while the administration responds to such trends with mere slogans like "regional revitalization" and "dynamic engagement of all citizens". But it is quite unlikely that these "policies" will really revitalize the region, or promote dynamic engagement by the people.

    It appears to me that these slogans are intended to boost election campaigns for the House of Councillors or possible double election with the House of Representatives in July, rather than to resolve real economic problems.

    This is typically seen in distribution of subsidies to the region, increases in governmental assistance to all categories of people, particularly benefits to lower income and elderly people with the total amount of 360 billion yen, and complete acceptance of Komeito's demand to introduce the reduced consumption tax rate system.

    Still, I would like to support the Abe administration continually, and this is why I advise them to articulate their policy directions to manage increasingly unforeseeable economy. From now on, I will tackle specific issues of this big problem one by one.

(This is the English translation of an article written by SHIMADA Haruo, President, Chiba University of Commerce, which originally appeared on the e-forum "Hyakka-Seiho" of JFIR on February 8, 2016, and was posted on "JFIR Commentary" on March 17, 2016.)

Resource :

The Japan Forum on International Relations (JFIR) E-Letter(20 April 2016, Vol. 9, No.2)

Friday, 1 April 2016

Perkembangan Kejadian Flu Burung dalam Musim Hujan Awal Tahun 2016

Kejadian AI pada unggas meningkat selama Maret 2016 (tgl 1-30 Maret)

1.     Kejadian AI sebanyak 47 di 47 desa, 43 kec, 29 kab/kota, 11 provinsi: Jabar (15), Lampung (12), Sulsel (6), Jatim (4) DIY (1), Jateng (4), DIY (1), Sulbar (1) dan DKI Jakarta (1), Sumsel (1), Kaltim (1), Banten (1).
2.     Jumlah kematian unggas : Itik 27.402 ekor: Ayam Petelur (9.832 ekor), Puyuh (5.273 ekor), Ayam kampung (2.174 ekor), Ayam Broiler (2.167 ekor)
3.     Koordinasi :Tim Unit Respon Cepat Keswan (Pusat, Prov dan Kab/kota) secara cepat lakukan pengendalian AI pada unggas dan kerjasama terpadu di lokasi dengan Tim Dinas Kesehatan setempat.

Kasus AI dan jumlah kematian pada unggas selama 1-28 Maret 2016 di Prov. Jawa Barat

1.     Kab. Sukabumi : 2 kasus (entog 2 ekor dan Puyuh 1.100 ekor
2.     Kab. Kuningan : 1 kasus (Puyuh 1.200 ekor)
3.     Kab. Majalengka: 2 kasus (Ayam kampung 86 ekor)
4.     Kab. Indramayu: 2 kasus (Itik 20 ekor, Kalkun 3 ekor)
5.     Kab. Bekasi: 1 kasus (Ayam 2 ekor)

Kejadian AI pada itik peking pedaging di Kab. Bekasi, Januari 2016

1.     Jumlah itik mati akibat AI sebanyak 224 ekor dari populasi awal 250 ekor 17-22 Januari 2016 usia siap panen (40 hari)
2.     Hasil Uji cepat (RAT) dan Uji PCR positif AI/H5N1 clade2.3.2
3.     Faktor risiko: air minum dari sungai terkontaminasi virus AI
4.     Pemusnahan 214 ekor sisa itik hidup, dibayarkan kompensasi APBN pusat Rp. 8.025.000,- tunai 19 Feb 2016.
5.     Kerjasama tim terpadu URC (Pusat, Prov Jabar, kab. Bekasi), Lab BPPPHK Cikole, PUSKESMAS Kec. Babelan, Kepala Desa.
6.     Pemantauan s/d 3 minggu pasca pemusnahan unggas, TIDAK ADA kasus AI baru pada peternakan dan unggas di sekitarnya, juga tidak ada kasus Suspek/konfirm Flu Burung pada warga desa Pantai Hurip.

Kejadian AI pada Unggas di Kab. Banyuwangi

1.     Lokasi: Dsn. Wringinagung, desa Sumberejo, kec. Gambiran, kab. Banyuwangi,  17 peternak itik, entog, ayam.
2.     Kronologis : unggas mati sejak awal maret 2016: Total 1.600 ekor dari populasi 7.600 ekor. itik 1.000 dari  5.000 ekor, ayam 400 dari 2.000 ekor, entog 200 dari 600 ekor. Awalnya peternak menduga akibat penyakit tetelo biasa. Peternak melapor ke Disnak kab (8 maret), Uji Cepat hasil positif dan pengambilan spesimen untuk pemeriksaan lab uji PCR (9 maret).
3.     Tindakan pengendalian AI: Disposal bangkai, pemusnahan unggas sisa sekandang, pembersihan disinfeksi, koordinasi dan penyuluhan bersama Dinas Kesehatan kab. Banyuwangi. Tidak ada warga/peternak yang suspek/konfirm Flu Burung.

Kejadian AI pada Unggas di Kab. Lamongan

1.     Peternakan ayam petelur di desa Sembung, kec. Sukarame, kab. Lamongan. Ayam produksi populasi awal 750 ekor, mati 735 ekor (8-15 Maret 2016) dengan hasil Rapid Test dan PCR positif AI. Sisa 11 ekor segera dimusnahkan, disinfeksi. Ayam grower 600 ekor usia 4 bulan di kandang lain diamankan dengan biosekuriti dan vaksinasi AI.
2.     Peternakan itik potong di desa Pajangan, kec. Sukodadi, kab. Lamongan, melaporkan pada 22 maret 2016 bahwa 18-22 Maret mati 40 ekor dari populasi awal 250 ekor. Dilakukan pengambilan sampel untuk uji PCR, sedang menunggu hasil lab.
3.     Tim terpadu dengan Dinas Kesehatan Kab. Lamongan untuk kewaspadaan, s/d saat ini tidak ada warga sekitar yang suspek atau konfirm Flu Burung.

Kejadian AI pada Unggas di Cilandak – Jakarta Selatan

1.     Lokasi : Kampung Pemulung, Kelurahan Cilandak Barat RT 14/04 Jl. Lebak Bulus V, Jakarta Selatan. Kawasan kumuh para pemulung, 10 KK yang memelihara ayam kampung dan entog diumbar.
2.     Kronologis: mulai unggas mati (15 Maret), melapor ke petugas keswan dan langsung RAT, ambil sampel (16 maret), Hasil Lab PCR (+) H5N1, pemusnahan tahap-1 (20 ekor), penyuluhan terpadu keswan-kesmas (17 maret), sweeping, pemusnahan tahap-2 (23 ekor) (23 Maret).
3.     Kondisi 23 Maret 2016: total unggas mati 30 ekor (19 ayam, 11 entog), unggas dimusnahkan 43 ekor (29 ayam, 14 entog)
4.     Tim terpadu One Health: Keswan (URC Pusat, Prov DKI Jakarta, Jaksel, Lab BKHI, BV Subang), Kesmas (Dinkes Jaksel, Dit. Penyehatan Lingkungan, Pemda (Camat Cilandak, Lurah, Satpol.PP)

Kasus AI pada Unggas di Kab Lumajang - Jawa Timur

1.     Lokasi : Ds. Sukorejo, kec. Kunir, Kab. Lumajang. Tim Pusat, BBV Wates, Dinas Daerah
2.     Populasi awal itik pedaging 11.000 ekor, itik petelur 3.000 ekor, Ayam Bangkok 300 ekor
3.     Itik pedaging mati akibat AI sekitar 500 ekor/hari, total 9.500 ekor umur 15-30 hari

Kasus AI pada Unggas di Kab. Sukabumi – Jawa Barat

1.     Lokasi : Peternakan Burung Puyuh milik Bpk. Eche di Kampung/kec Sukalarang, kab. Sukabumi.
2.     Populasi 1.300 ekor puyuh umur 6-24 bln, selama 2 tahun aman, membatasi lalulintas orang.
3.     Mulai 24-28 Maret 2016 mati mendadak 1.200 ekor. RAT (+) 27 Maret 2016.
4.     Faktor risiko: 21 Maret, puyuh 30 ekor afkir dibeli murah dari Peternak Puyuh Bp. Syamsul, yang sebelumnya telah mati ratusan ekor, mengira karena ND, selebihnya telah dipotong afkir.

SE DJ. PKH No.12141, Tgl. 12 Feb 2016 Peningkatan kewaspadaan dan pengendalian AI

1.     Penyuluhan kesadaran masyarakat/peternak melapor bila unggas sakit/mati mendadak dan waspada
2.     Petugas keswan lakukan Deteksi, Lapor dan Respon Cepat Pengendalian AI
3.     Biosekuriti 3 Zona (Bersih, Antara, Kotor)
4.     Vaksinasi 3 Tepat (Vaksin, Jadwal, Tehnik vaksinasi)
5.     Sanitasi rantai pemasaran unggas
6.     Perilaku Hidup Bersih Sehat (PHBS) Masyarakat
7.     Surveilans dan investigasi dinamika virus AI
8.     Pengadaan DOC dari Breeding farm bersertifikat Kompartemen Bebas AI

Tujuan respon cepat pengendalian AI pada unggas:

1.     Memberantas virus AI pada sumber kejadian penyakitnya (pada peternakan unggas) guna meminimalisir kerugian ekonomi peternak
2.     Memutus rantai penyebaran virus AI guna mencegah/meminimalisir penyebaran virus AI ke dalam rantai pemasaran unggas
3.     Mencegah/meminimalisir risiko penularan Flu Burung dari unggas ke manusia

Deteksi, Pelaporan dan Respon Cepat

1.     Deteksi : Rapid Antigen Test
2.     Pelaporan: dari Masyarakat, Peternak, ke Kader atau Pelapor desa, dengan i-SIKHNAS. Rapid test (+) lapor SMS Gateway
3.     Respon Pengendalian: Isolasi, Focal Culling, Disposal, KIE. Bantuan ke peternak: Disinfektan, Vaksin, APD, Pendampingan penerapan Biosekuriti 3 Zona dan atau Vaksinasi 3 Tepat (diutamakan pada Wilayah Risiko Tinggi)

Sumber : URC PHMS, Direktorat Kesehatan Hewan, Ditjen PKH, Kementan